New geothermal systems could technically provide as much as 600 terawatts of carbon-free power capacity by 2050, according to the IEA. Most of this humongous technical potential is available only at much higher temperatures and far greater depths than conventional tools are able to access — potentially as deep as 8 kilometers, or around 5 miles.
If next-gen tech can tap these hotter, deeper resources, and do so cost-effectively, the geothermal sector could generate around 4,000 petawatt-hours of electricity per year — enough to meet the world’s power demand 140 times over.
“Geothermal is a firm, clean, and massively scalable energy source that has been, until recently, virtually unrepresented in global conversations about energy and climate,” said Drew Nelson, vice president of programs, policy, and strategy at the nonprofit Project InnerSpace. The geothermal advocacy group conducted the underlying modeling and assessment work for the IEA’s report.
Companies and research institutions are racing to design new geothermal drilling tools and energy systems. Much of that work is happening in the United States, led by startups like Fervo Energy, Sage Geosystems, and Quaise Energy and bolstered by Department of Energy–led initiatives such as Utah Forge. In Iceland, scientists are studying how to extract heat from the most extreme environments, including magma chambers.
These initial efforts have already yielded enough progress that the IEA found that countries could cost-effectively deploy over 800 GW of geothermal power capacity using technology that’s in development today, including enhanced geothermal systems. That’s enough to meet the current power needs of the U.S. and India combined.
Unlocking more around-the-clock geothermal power would help to balance the huge amounts of intermittent solar and wind energy coming onto the grid in places like the United States, China, Europe, and Brazil. It could also replace coal-fired power plants or prevent new ones from being built in fast-growing economies in India, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and South America.
The IEA report “should be a clear signal to policymakers and stakeholders across the globe that next-generation geothermal has arrived [and] is ready to deploy,” Nelson said.
